Karla Arguello, MBA
Executive Vice President of Cathy Pareto And Associates, Inc. – Experience a more personal approach to financial planning and investing.
www.cathypareto.com cathypareto.blogspot.com
Safe High Return Investments Naples
Oil prices are high, real estate is down, the dollar is flat, unemployment is high, your investments are down, and no one really knows what’s going to happen with the elections in November. The future is uncertain to say the least, and for many the fear of uncertainty can lead them to make poor investment decisions that will have a rippling effect into their future. It is times like these that separate the well prepared investor from the panic stricken speculator. Let’s explore the difference between the two and the consequences.An investor is someone who invests using a consistent, long-term strategy to secure their financial future using well diversified investments. Generally the focus is on minimizing risk while maximizing return.A speculator or market timer is someone who is less concerned about consistency and who switches investments on an emotional whim.During a bull market most people would say that they are investors, but when the stock markets are jittery investors get tested, revealing many closeted speculators. This may include you, if you liquidated your investments and are waiting for the markets to recover to get back in.Why This Strategy Does Not WorkYou simply cannot predict when the markets will rally and when the markets will hit rock bottom. And missing the upswings of the market can be very damaging to your long term returns as seen in the following graph. Understanding RiskInvesting in the stock market is not risk free. You should understand and feel comfortable with the level of risk in your portfolio so that when the market goes through its cycles you are well prepared. Let’s explore this further. Let’s use a hypothetical portfolio ABC with the following risk and return criteria:Standard deviation = 10% (Standard deviation is a statistical measurement that sheds light on historical volatility. This is a good measure of the portfolio’s risk. The higher the standard deviation, the riskier the portfolio.)Expected return = 12%If you own portfolio ABC what can you expect going forward? To answer this question we must go back to statistics. If you are a long term investor you expect that the average return will be 12%. This does not mean that you will earn 12% every year. After all, there is market risk to consider. For example, one year you may earn 6% another year 25% or anywhere in between, and so forth.At any given period you can be 68% confident that your portfolio’s return will fall within a range of 2% to 22%. And you can be almost certain that your portfolio’s return may fall anywhere from -18% to 42%. Can you deal with this? Most investors enjoy the up side of risk, but seldom enjoy the downside. Case in point, an investor that earns 32% on a portfolio whose long term expected return is 12% is a happy camper. But, is that same investor happy when the same portfolio (whose expected return is 12%) earns a crummy -8%? The point of this example is to understand that returns will vary from year to year. Depending on the standard deviation of your portfolio, those figures will fluctuate within a given range and you must be willing to live with that volatility. Just like you will not get 12% returns every year, you will also not get negative returns every year. Long term investors must understand and accept this risk if they want to be appropriately compensated.Remember you are a long term investor. It’s the long term strategy that matters. Over the long run when you average the positive and negative returns your portfolio’s total return will approximate 12%. All the bumps in between are just part of the investment process.
Quoting Warren Buffet “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”The Importance of DiversificationAs investors, we must understand that markets are cyclical and that there is risk involved in investing in the stock market. While that risk never completely goes away, we can do a lot to minimize the portfolio risk to the best extent possible. The best way to do this is to diversify our investments across different asset classes (or categories of the stock market) The key here is to identify investments in segments that perform opposite to one another under different market conditions (known as negative correlation), or at least have low correlations to each other. The result is higher returns and lower risk over time.One common example that simplifies this concept is that of suntan lotion and umbrellas:If you own a store that sells suntan lotion in Florida, more than likely you will do very well when it’s sunny out and people are going to the beach or outdoors. However, we all know that it rains in Florida, so on rainy days your store may not do so well. To diversify the risk of not selling any suntan lotion on rainy days you could consider also stocking up on umbrellas. That way you will make money whether it rains or it’s sunny out. This is the concept of diversification. Market conditions that cause one asset category to perform well, often cause another asset category to have average or poor returns. If properly executed, diversification will smooth out the unsystematic (market) risk events in your portfolio.What About Asset Allocation?Asset allocation describes how you choose to distribute your investments among investment vehicles such as stocks, fixed income, alternative assets, cash etc. According to Roger G. Ibbotson’s The True Impact of Asset Allocation on Returns“for the long-term individual investor who maintains a consistent asset allocation and leans toward index funds, asset allocation determines about 100 percent of performance—regardless of whether one is measuring return variability across time, return variation between funds, or return amount.”How you decide to distribute your assets among investments is a personal choice that needs to be looked at very carefully. In making this decision you should take the following into consideration:
Conclusion
When it comes to investing and life in general, it always pays to do your homework and have a plan. As a long term investor your goal is to diversify your investments to reduce risk and maximize your long term results. This involves the careful selection and distribution of assets among investment vehicles that support your risk tolerance, time horizon and individual needs, as well as the appropriate mix of negatively correlated asset categories.There is no denying the sexy allure of timing the market, or the fact that speculators can make money, and do get lucky investing in what’s “hot”. However, the reality is that they can’t consistently beat the market. More times than not, speculators end up buying high and selling low in a panic. You will always hear how much money a speculator made on one or two investments, but you will rarely hear how much money they have lost on their other not-so-“hot” investments. It is wiser to develop a long term strategy and remain consistent even when the market misbehaves. After all, if we do our homework we would know what to expect in the long run and this includes expecting, that at some point or another, our portfolios will experience a few bad periods. What matters is the long term performance of our investments and most of all our peace of mind.
Market risk is not predictable nor avoidable that is why stocks have higher returns than “safe” savings and fixed income investments.
Karla Arguello, MBA
Executive Vice President of Cathy Pareto And Associates, Inc. – Experience a more personal approach to financial planning and investing.
www.cathypareto.com cathypareto.blogspot.com
Safe High Return Investments Naples
Recently, there was an article on CNNMoney that spoke about the “secrets” of the elite rich in the United States. In turn, several articles were written about this article, including one that stated that the richest of Americans “built their wealth with diversification, wealth preservation and strategic growth.” That is a ridiculous statement in itself because two of those strategies, diversification and preservation don’t help build wealth. Perhaps the richest of Americans use these two strategies to maintain an even keel AFTER they have accumulated great wealth, but certainly they didn’t use them during the accumulation phase. According to this article, a survey of Northern Trust uncovered that the “richest Americans do not heavily rely on high-risk investment vehicles like hedge funds to make money, but are moderate risk takers who put more than half of their asset allocation into U.S. stocks and cash.”
Again, just as former hedge fund manager and multi-millionaire Jim Cramer said that he used certain financial journalists, including ones employed by the Wall Street Journal, as pawns to spread misinformation far and wide to benefit himself, again this is an example of investment institutions using the media as pawns to spread their myths to keep the masses of retail investors ignorant. The CNNMoney article made it appear that the richest of Americans built their wealth by being conservative and slowly growing their money over time. That’s an oxymoron right there. To state that the rich became rich by slowly growing their money over time. Well, if they are slowly growing their money and becoming even richer, then this implies that they were rich to begin with. So how did they accumulate wealth? Surely not by “slowly growing” their money.Sure, some of the “richest Americans do not heavily rely on high-risk investments” because they ARE ALREADY EXTREMELY RICH. The majority of ultra-rich do NOT build their fortunes by speculating on high-risk investments as is commonly believed. Often they build fortunes utilizing volatile assets and investments but that does NOT mean they were engaging in risky behavior. Many times, investing in a hedge fund can be much riskier than investing in some of the assets that your investment firm will tell you is “risky”. But investment firms will gladly place a portion of your money in hedge funds because the fees they earn from hedge funds are so high even as they advise you not to put your money in a much less risky investment with much greater earning potential. And THIS IS THE SECRET that investment firms never tell you.Volatile assets that often can be used to build great wealth are NOT RISKY if they are purchased at entry points that are extremely favorable and provide a low-risk point of entry. 99% of investors don’t understand what high-risk investments truly are because they have been misinformed by their advisors and their firms for the past half of a century. Purchasing volatile assets at low risk-high reward entry points greatly mitigates and neutralizes the great majority of risk of volatile assets. If you don’t understand this concept then you need to.
Many millionaires that are wealthy but that could be extremely wealthy fail to build enormous wealth because investment and financial institutions mislead them about certain investment opportunities and describe them as complex and risky and are able to convince their clients of this belief because they never properly explain risk-reward scenarios to their clients. However, those investors that are extremely wealthy are the rare breed that understand this concept. If investors had a choice between allocating $1,000,000 in a historically volatile Investment A that has a 78% chance of returning a 250% gain versus an Investment B that has a 95% chance of earning 9%, most investors would choose Investment A.
However, because Investment A may exhibit 50% more volatility than Investment B, the great majority of advisors would steer their client away from the former investment into the latter one. In fact, this is exactly what even “prestigious” firms that cater to ultra high net-worth clients do because they allow misinformed, uneducated investors dictate the rules of engagement to them, and they would much rather appease such powerful, important people with slow,minimal gains rather than empower and enlighten them and boost their returns like never before. They would choose to steer them away because they present the investment opportunities incorrectly, merely telling their client that while they could earn 350% from Investment A there was also a very realistic probability that they could lose $300,000, and that shooting for the slow but steady $90,000 a year is much better for them.
If you are thinking to yourself, “That makes absolutely no sense?” Why would firms not earn 20% a year for their clients if they could instead of 8% a year? The answer is because the overwhelming majority of investment firms, no matter how prestigious their brand, are merely highly glorified sales machines. They fail to convince clients to invest in phenomenal investment opportunities that sometimes arise like Investment A because in order for Investment A to be a moderate risk, very high reward investment, it must be entered at a low risk entry point so that the probability of being down $300,000 at any give time would be reduced from perhaps 50% to 20%.
And that even if their timing is not optimal, then a firm must educate the client that as long as they don’t panic when they are down, the odds are still extremely high that they will earn a 250% or better gain. However, the greatest factor that determines why firms will not seek this strategy is time. Engaging in much better strategies such as these for their clients would take massive amounts of time in client education and enough time in research that the amount of assets gathered would take a serious hit.
So because it is not in a firm’s interest to engage in activities that maximize portfolio returns (unless it is their own institutional portfolio), instead, we have Chief Investment Officers at top investment firms making statements like, “”Generally they [the richest of Americans] want to see prudently managed growth without a lot of surprises, which is why we emphasize diversification.” Again, this is a sales & marketing campaign statement, not an aboveboard statement about how to make money for clients.If clients are uncomfortable with strategies that would actually built great wealth for them instead of producing mediocre or subpar returns, their discomfort only originates from the fact that the largest investment firms have been deceiving their clients, just as Jim Cramer had deceived the thundering sheep herd for years, about the realities of building wealth. This discomfort originates solely from the fact that he or she has been kept in the dark for so long. Thus, we have a misinformation-driven cauldron of investors making bad investment decisions that exists today. In 2007, you’ll still find Chief Investment Officers of very well known firms making ridiculous statement that investors need to invest at least 50% of their stock portfolio in U.S. stocks if they wish to grow their portfolios exponentially.
How are they going to grow their portfolios exponentially with more than half of their stocks in a stock market (the U.S.) that has NEVER been the best performing market in the past 25 years (even among developed stock markets)? How will they grow their portfolios exponentially by buying stocks in market that trades in what is quite possibly the worst currency on earth among developed markets (the U.S. dollar)? Yes I know that when the U.S. dollar shows a brief spike in strength as is likely to happen soon (I’m writing this article in April, 2007), that many people will question what I am saying, but this is only again because they are victims to the mass deception mind-games of the investment industry. I suppose if planning to earn better than subpar returns in your stock portfolio is engaging in risky behavior as Chief Investment Officers of various firms claim, then yes, I whole-heartedly endorse engaging in risky behavior.
And because so many people, yes, even those considered quite wealthy, fall victim to the preaching of investment industry demagogues, there is a second mistake that many rich investors will soon make.
Another survey of wealthy U.S. investors uncovered that a large percentage of investors with investment assets of over a million do not employ any type of investment advisor but plan to do so soon giving the increasingly gloomy nature of the U.S. stock markets. To that, this is what I have to say. Making money in difficult markets is ten times more difficult than making money in bull markets. If investors believe that it will be increasingly more difficult to make money in U.S. stock markets, but yet top investment firms in the U.S. continue to preach that more than half of your portfolio should be in U.S. stocks (mostly to cover their respective firm’s inadequate coverage of emerging markets), how is the hiring one of these men possibly going to improve these investors’ future performance outlook?But there is an EXTREMELY important distinction to be made here. What I’ve written above applies to the behavior and mindset of some of the richest people in America, but not THE very richest people in America. The very richest people in America, those you might categorize as the world’s ultra-rich, possess a very different mindset and behavior set than those that are just rich. The ultra-rich have positioned their portfolios extremely differently from how the rich people discussed above have positioned their portfolios. The reason why articles regarding their behavior and investment decisions are virtually non-existent is because they don’t grant interviews and they don’t want people to know what they are doing. But I’ve investigated what they are doing, and trust me, it is nothing remotely similar to the behavior of wealthy investors described by Northern Trust and other investment firms.
If you would like to find out why the ultra-rich always manage their own money or able to find the 1 in a million consultant truly capable of providing them the returns they desire, consult our resource of “101 Reasons Why Managing Your Own Money is the Only Way to Build Wealth.” Even if the ultra-wealthy have someone managing their money for them, the only way they were capable of finding this 1 in a million financial consultant was due to the fact that if they had to, they could manage their own money successfully as well. Only be first fully understanding the most successful investment strategies themselves could they identify an advisor capable of employing such strategies. However, a great majority of ultra-wealthy continue to handle and make their own investment decisions.